Last Wednesday, RCFC member and CSU Professor Emeritus, Henry Weisser helped us understand the current war in Ukraine with his talk entitled Highlights from the History of Russia and Ukraine. In classic Henry style the talk was presented with engaging slides including evolving maps of the region illustrating how the 2 countries have been entangled from the 16th century to the present day. The many portraits started with Winston Churchill – (Russia is “a riddle, wrapped up in a mystery, inside an enigma”) and ended with Putin. Others featured were Lenin, Stalin, Khrushchev, and Gorbachev.
So, what are the constants in Russian history? Fear of invasion from the East (starting with the Mongols) and from the West (the Poles, Swedes, the Teutonic Knights, the French, and the Germans). Russia is a flat plain without natural barriers. The Russians have defended themselves by expanding and creating buffer states. Today Belarus is a buffer to the west and Ukraine was a buffer state to the south until it declared independence in 1991. The word Ukraine means borderland in Russian.
An interesting comparison - the US South declared itself independent in 1861. It took 600,000 lives to get the South back. Only time will tell how many Russian and Ukrainian lives will be sacrificed in the current conflict.
Russia and Ukraine have complemented one another in recent history - Ukraine is a breadbasket (grade A soil) while Russia is industrial (oil and gas). Both countries are Eastern Orthodox in religion. Their languages are very similar. Both have dominant Slavic ethnicity. In Ukraine 17% of people identify as Russian while nearly 2 million people living all over Russia identify as Ukrainian. Famous Soviet leaders have Ukrainian roots - Khrushchev, Brezhnev, Chernenko and Gorbachev.
So, what are the differences between the 2 countries? Mostly government. Ukraine is a recent democracy. Russia is a Kleptocracy. Putin runs Russia as a Mafia state and is a murderer (both of those in Russia who resist him as well as the people of Ukraine).
Another historical constant in Russian history is that power is concentrated at the top. The Tsars ruled for centuries until 1917. For a time, there was hope for democracy, but this hope was crushed when Lenin’s Bolsheviks came into power. He was followed by a paranoid mass murderer, Stalin. Gorbachev, a reformer oversaw the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. The people of Russia like stability and order. After Boris Yeltsin, they got it back with Putin.
In 1991 the Ukrainians chose independence by a wide margin (except for Crimea). Ukrainian nationalism has grown since and now sustains the fight against Russia.
Of great importance in the outcome of this conflict are the 2 countries’ differences in size, population, and resources. Russia is 28x the size of Ukraine. The Russian population is 4x that of Ukraine.
Henry finished by mentioning 2 sad “recent” chapters in Ukraine’s history. In WWII many Ukrainians welcomed the Nazis and joined the German military as well as assisted the Nazis in their extermination of Jews. A recent disaster, the Chernobyl meltdown in 1986 is located 130 miles north of Kiev.
Q & A started with a question for the audience. How will the war end? – Chose A, B or C - Ukraine wins, Russia wins, or no one wins? C was the clear winner.
Q? Is there a tipping point when too many soldiers die and Russian mothers rebel? A: The war is framed as a proxy war as NATO encircles Russia. Also, remember there are grieving mothers in Ukraine.
Q? Are you, Henry, making a case for Putin? A: “I was explaining the minds of many Russians. It is good to know what the other side is thinking.”
Q? Can the current use of mercenaries be maintained? A: Probably, and It prevents a larger scale conscription of Russians.
Q? What effect would a reelection of Trump have? A: This was tossed to Bob Lawrence - Yes, Putin will wait and be rewarded
Q? Will Putin use nuclear weapons? A: Possibly, but only “tactical” ones if backed into a corner.
Q? Can the war “end” like the Korean conflict - no real end but a dividing line as hostilities are dialed down? A: Yes, that is one possibility.
We thank Dr Weisser and hope he will return for future historical insight into current events. An excellent continuation of this subject followed in the Rotary Current Events Fellowship (new name for History Fellowship).